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Sunday, December 5, 2021

Dragon : More Smoke, Less Fire

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Is Dragon simply a sick Panda doing fancy dress? Why did China survive fall of Red Regimes in 1989-91 and why it might not be able to for long? Soviet Union, the pole star of Lal-a-Land imploded like a supernova in 1991. Before that revolutions started in 1989, first in Poland, then we witnessed the opening of border gate between Austria and Hungary. Civil resistance in East bloc kept on spreading all across the communist controlled regimes. As a kid it was interesting to watch Lech Walesa leading the Polish recovery, images of resistance at Tiananmen swears in Mid 1989, fall of Berlin Wall and then dramatic fall of Nikolai Causeascu in Romania and his subsequent execution. All countries which formed the red curtain including non European and non Caucus ones like Ethiopia, Mongolia, Yemen, Cambodia abandoned communism. Only four Communist regimes survived this purge.
China
Cuba
Laos
Vietnam

China was the only big country which had huge civil resistance and still communism survived. Visuals of Chinese resistance movement actually triggered civil resistances abroad but the Chinese revolutionaries failed in dismantling the red iron curtain. There are many postulates but these are few likely ones

1) 90% Chinese are Han people. Also Chinese people have a strong sense of nationhood and pride in their heritage and culture since antiquity. So the revolution was more of changing the regime and not a implosion kind of movement as we saw in Soviet Union which was union of few captured lands. So the national heritage helped them survive the fire.

2) Brutal clampdown of the revolution.
No one knows how many students and revolutionaries were killed by Red Army during Tiananmen massacre. Everyone is sure it was in tens of thousands. Fathers were ordered to run tanks over their protesting sons and daughters. Total control over media helped the regime gloss over this mass murder. One child policy had made parents wary of going too far in revolution as they didn’t want to lose entire next generation so revolution was only a youth movement and disgruntled adults swallowed their spit and didn’t participate.

3) Non Han states like Yunnan, Xinjiang, Tibet, Inner Mongolia over years were made into Han majority states by state deliberately settling Han people there. Result was almost zero scope of armed rebellion or resistance in most restive occupied provinces because of demography change. Also the knowledge that Chinese PLA was totally capable of killing as many people as it takes to clamp down on revolution without a worry about morals, ethics, human rights or Karma.

4) Post clampdown, China was made into quasi capitalist state where economic activity was promoted while keeping human freedom at communism level. It was an experiment they thought will work best because they knew that most Chinese are patriots and they might be unhappy about the status of their lives but are proudly Chinese. Ignite their passion about being Chinese and they will swallow lack of freedom or income disparity. Also lot of effort was made to resuscitate heroes from past like Confucius, Zheng He and overall pride in Chinese history. Entire education was controlled to make the coming generations proud of being Chinese. Their olympics movement in not only creating winners plus hosting of Olympics was means to this end.

So what next?
Measures of 1989 rebellion quelling can be equated to extensive chemotherapy to a cancerous patient. It saved the day but it created lot of long term effects which will manifest in coming times and it will be very difficult to control.

1) China has highest income disparity and that automatically creates divisions in society. It has to be seen to be believed. Also a society brought on communist values doesn’t have much compassion or love for the ones who are least fortunate. So a rich man or group won’t bother much to help the poor. This division is like a simmering volcano. Once the treadmill stops, it simply makes the society fall. And now because of Covid affecting factories, the poor are really falling behind. The day they believe it’s better to die than have a wretched existence, there is likelihood of implosion.

2) China is intensely corrupt.
Way beyond what we can even imagine in India. It is almost treated as if it’s the grease who lubricates the economy. It’s not unusual in China for a student to bribe his teacher, a person bribing his own brother or friends bribing each other. It took seventy years of communism to get to this and there is no turning back. Societies crumble when moral values fall.

3) Godless society is a problem.
Atheism sounds great in theory and paper but religion ( good ones) have their own advantages. It makes people optimistic, law abiding, many times more moral, helping, benevolent and also to cooperate with each other. When a Dog eats Dog society is created it is always Matsyanyay. The bigger dog eats the smaller dog and he in turn eats even smaller dog. And someday small dogs decide enough is enough and they join together and hunt rte big dogs. There are many Chinese who long for some spiritual path and they actually try to find solace and peace in Buddhism of Dalai Lama and Tibetans. Especially in neighbouring provinces of Tibet like Sichuan etc because collective past memory doesn’t erase. Then there are some extremely fishy Church which are bribing its way through to create a huge social issue in China. They bribe corrupt local communist officers and get entry and then they indulge in nefarious activity. A vaccuum of spirituality existed and since proper religious discourses are discouraged, its only cults and hidden occult churches which survive. They do much more harm than good. One only has to google the incognito converts to know this problem in a society which was one of the strongest pillar of Eastern spirituality and wisdom along with India.

4) Covid and economic downturn
China’s role in Covid has angered entire world. It has had strong impact on its economy. We can never believe numbers which come from China as a couple of trillion dollars are always as kept as margins of showing power. If their factories start shutting, millions will be unemployed. That’s recipe for disaster in a society where there is no safety valve of religion, compassion or belief in Karma.

5) Donald Trump
What we are witnessing today is Lukewarm war between US – China for global hegemony. Trump is a sharp player and Xi in trying to match him in being cunning is making entire world his enemy. Picking up a fight with India, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, Australia, Europe is intensely stupid. It’s almost Mohini dictating steps to Bhasmasur to guide him to self destruction. Indian defiance to Chinese aggression has made world realise that China is also vulnerable. India is attacking them on economic front obviously in coordination with Trump regime and also defending stoutly on ground and sea. You can’t win a semi cold war with entire world as your enemy and only Failed state of Paxtaan and North Korea as your allies. So yes, this is probably the time world can actually dream of another round of fall of Red regimes and also of a Free Tibet. It might take few years to few decades but a country which implodes Atleast 2-3 times every century, it is almost living on borrowed time. Economic might doesn’t count as what goes up fast also can fall fast. Soviet Union survived for exactly 74 years. Communist China will hit 74 years in 2023.

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