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Friday, March 5, 2021

Will China be able to control Myanmar

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Rajiv Saxena
Rajiv Saxena
Rajiv Prakash Saxena is a graduate of UBC, Vancouver, Canada. He is an authority on eCommerce, eProcurement, eSign, DSCs and Internet Security. He has been a Technology Bureaucrat and Thought leader in the Government. He has 8 books and few UN assignments. He wrote IT Policies of Colombia and has implemented projects in Jordan, Rwanda, Nepal and Mauritius. Rajiv writes, speaks, mentors on technology issues in Express Computers, ET, National frontier and TV debates. He worked and guided the following divisions: Computer Aided Design (CAD), UP: MP: Maharashtra and Haryana State Coordinator to setup NICNET in their respective Districts of the State, TradeNIC, wherein a CD containing list of 1,00,000 exporters was cut with a search engine and distributed to all Indian Embassies and High Commissions way back in the year 1997 (It was an initiative between NIC and MEA Trade Division headed by Ms. Sujatha Singh, IFS, India’s Ex Foreign Secretary), Law Commission, Ministry of Law & Justice, Department of Legal Affairs, Department of Justice, Ministry of Urban Development (MoUD), Ministry of Housing & Urban Poverty Alleviation (MoHUPA), National Jail Project, National Human Rights Commission (NHRC), National Commission for Minorities (NCM), National Data Centres (NDC), NIC National Infrastructure, Certifying Authority (CA) to issue Digital Signature Certificates (DSCs), eProcurement, Ministry of Parliamentary Affairs (MPA), Lok Sabha and its Secretariat (LSS) and Rajya Sabha and its Secretariat (RSS) along with their subordinate and attached offices like Directorate of Estate (DoE), Land & Development Office (L&DO), National Building Construction Corporation (NBCC), Central Public Works Department (CPWD), National Capital Regional Planning Board (NCRPB), Housing & Urban Development Corporation (HUDO), National Building Organisation (NBO), Delhi Development Authority (DDA), BMPTC and many others.

China has been trying to move into the Indian Ocean via the Arabian Sea or the Bay of Bengal for a very long time. At present the following routes are available to China and control the maritime routes for export and import. Thus it ensures that once the land routes are planned, built and secured, sea ports are built to create permanent bases for its navy and create a military base with fighter planes, drones, medium boats and helicopters and a very active army to counterattack.

Route Number 1

The 1st route passes via Balochistan, which is in control of Pakistan but to enter the Arabian Sea, China has to pass through Kashmir. A powerful blast targeting a police vehicle in Balochistan killed five people, including two Pakistani security personnel, and injured 38 others. The blast happened close to a police vehicle at the Bacha Khan Chowk in the remit of the city police station just five days back. The target of the blast appeared to be the Station House Officer (SHO) of the area who received some injuries and has been shifted to a hospital. This route China calls as the “China Pakistan Economic Corridor” (CPEC) but in this route, China had to face India. With repealing of the Article 370 and Article 35A, it had become difficult. The opposition of the Baloch people is intense and China was nowhere getting close to its objective. If Pakistan starts paying back the loan, taken by it for investments in the CPEC, the vassal state of China will become a bankrupt state and it appears that China will not make any further investments in CPEC due to safety of its personal. Hence the world witnessed the Galwan valley conflict to exert pressure on India. The border management of India saw extensive road and bridge building activity in the region, with around 100 new bridges getting built in the region, which are 75% complete. The dream of the Bharat Ratna Late Baapji Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee to build a tunnel in Himachal Pradesh is one such luminary example and this road has become an all – weather, which reaches our Northern borders.

Route number 2

This route is via Myanmar. China already built a pipeline passing through Myanmar but in the last November the civilian government won the election with a massive mandate and general perception and result which came out was not as per China’s plan of thinking. Never forget that in Myanmar 40% of the senate seats are reserved for the military. During the election, out of the remaining 60% seats, more than 51% seats were won by the State Counsellor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and Commander in Chief of Defense Services Senior General Min Aung Hlaing wanted nomination. Indian engagement in Myanmar is intensive. Myanmar, which is situated between India and China, is a resource – rich country, and has a proven 20 trillion cubic feet (570 billion cubic metres) of natural gas. In the energy sector, the two countries enjoy a robust partnership and also recognise the benefits of deeper integration in the energy sector. Besides the energy – related cooperation both sides talked about maintenance of security and stability in their border areas. They also reiterated their mutual commitment not to allow their respective territories to be used for “activities inimical to each other”. India also gifted a submarine and have been training their defence personal in under water warfare. India gave INS Sindhuvir, a Kilo-class submarine in service with the Indian Navy since 1988, to Myanmar. The submarine has been refurbished by Hindustan Shipyard Limited in Visakhapatnam. This has increased its service life by 10 to 15 years, which means the submarine will be in service with the Myanmar Navy until the 2030s. This meant the China plan went for a huge toss. Hence it was necessary to throw out the Suu regime and install a puppet government in Myanmar. This will put great pressure on India as its proposed investments will have to wait to fructify.

Route number 3

Route number 3 passes between China and Taiwan. While Taiwan getting stronger day by day, China knows this route can be blocked anytime by an aggressive Taiwan with full support of the USA and major flotilla of USA is stationed there. Moreover, this route also passes via Andaman and Nicobar Islands and that can be blocked by India as it has a major theatre command stationed there for any misadventure by China.

With the presence of Quad in the area, this has already become a very tough route for China. Hence China can’t afford Taiwan to slip from its control. To counter the Andaman and Nicobar block, China had increased its forces in Galwan and Arunachal Pradesh to increase India’s cost of the Indian Army so that the Indian Navy budget of modernisation and fleet increase doesn’t happen. Remember a few years back Indian Navy requested, US$ 8 Billion for modernisation and adding more ships to its fleet. This means what could have gone to the Indian Navy now goes to the Indian Army and a major threat to route number 3 by the Indian Navy can be deflected.

Route number 4

Route number 4, which is an imaginary line, is China – Dhoklam – Bangladesh, which passes through Siliguri and this area is called the ‘chicken neck area of the India’s east’, which is a land corridor between West Bengal, Bangladesh and Assam. For this China needs to break “India’s chicken neck”. Hence the reference made by a JNU protester about Chicken Neck during Anti CAA protest was neither slip of the tongue or out of context but a part of well thought out China plan. As per reports a large number of Rohingya Muslims were got settled by the previous UPA regime and is a threat to the nation. With strong leadership in India, China Galwan Plan, Dhoklam plan and Andaman plan will never happen. Hence the communist and congress in India want the Modi government to fall as soon as possible. In 2017, China sold two Ming-class submarines to Bangladesh in a US$ 200 million deal. This has made the Bangladesh Navy dependent on China for maintenance of its naval assets, its weapons and future upgrades. Overall, Bangladesh’s military build – up is directed by the Bangladesh Military’s “Forces Goal 2030” comprehensive modernisation plan introduced in the year 2009, which perhaps is reflective of how the country sees itself on the world stage. With a population of 170 million and a growing economy, Bangladesh has been positioning itself as a leader among the G77 group of developing countries and it should be noted that it is a top contributor to UN peacekeeping missions and an invitee in G-7 and G-20 meetings. Since then, the Bangladesh Navy has taken delivery of many naval vessels from China and has signed contracts for a few more.

It is a point to be noted and understood that China signed a MoU with 10 Janpath (not Congress) in the year 2008 and with China only interest is business, meaning access to Indian market and resources. This secret MoU has not been made public till date and the congress party has not come clean on this aspect and they are totally silent. I am quite sure that MoU was all about handing over our natural resources, market, and the sea route to China to make our country weak and surrender before the PLA.

Route number 5

Route number 5 is the only clean trouble – free route for China which is around Australia but this route is practically impossible as the cost for China shipping will increase 100 times more making its imports and exports extremely expensive, unviable and will take long time.

This is the crux of tension in Asia & the mother of all problems is China. An unstable corrupt Pakistan, now puppet dictator in Myanmar, instability in Nepal, with dissolution of the current Sanghiya Sansad and fresh elections in Nepal General elections will be held in Nepal in two phases on 30 April and 10 May 2021 to elect the 275 members of the sixth House of Representatives, the lower house of the Federal Parliament of Nepal, Sri Lanka has decided to develop the strategic East Container Terminal (ECT) at the Colombo Port on its own. The Sri Lankan government would instead offer the West Container Terminal to India for possible investments, China is trying to call the shots.

Finally good news came on the China border. The Chinese and Indian armies started to disengage simultaneously on Wednesday after a months – long border standoff, after 9 long rounds of talks and Chinese experts hailed the move as a key breakthrough that will ease border tensions and hopefully lead to peace and stability.

Frontline troops of the Chinese and Indian armies stationed at the southern and northern banks of the Pangong Tso began simultaneous, scheduled disengagement on Wednesday, in accordance to a consensus reached during the 9th round of corps commander-level meeting. This is a great victory of India, after it gained height and positioned its troops at greater heights. Chinese tanks have also started withdrawing and it could not redraw the LAC.

The Chinese move will bring peace in the region, but now China will concentrate to remain in Myanmar to control its generals. Countries like New Zealand have snapped ties and Australia has protested loudly and it wants the Australian advisor to the nation released immediately.

Whether Uncle Sam likes it or not or imposes more sanctions, the dragon is going to stay put in Myanmar for long.

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Rajiv Saxena
Rajiv Saxena
Rajiv Prakash Saxena is a graduate of UBC, Vancouver, Canada. He is an authority on eCommerce, eProcurement, eSign, DSCs and Internet Security. He has been a Technology Bureaucrat and Thought leader in the Government. He has 8 books and few UN assignments. He wrote IT Policies of Colombia and has implemented projects in Jordan, Rwanda, Nepal and Mauritius. Rajiv writes, speaks, mentors on technology issues in Express Computers, ET, National frontier and TV debates. He worked and guided the following divisions: Computer Aided Design (CAD), UP: MP: Maharashtra and Haryana State Coordinator to setup NICNET in their respective Districts of the State, TradeNIC, wherein a CD containing list of 1,00,000 exporters was cut with a search engine and distributed to all Indian Embassies and High Commissions way back in the year 1997 (It was an initiative between NIC and MEA Trade Division headed by Ms. Sujatha Singh, IFS, India’s Ex Foreign Secretary), Law Commission, Ministry of Law & Justice, Department of Legal Affairs, Department of Justice, Ministry of Urban Development (MoUD), Ministry of Housing & Urban Poverty Alleviation (MoHUPA), National Jail Project, National Human Rights Commission (NHRC), National Commission for Minorities (NCM), National Data Centres (NDC), NIC National Infrastructure, Certifying Authority (CA) to issue Digital Signature Certificates (DSCs), eProcurement, Ministry of Parliamentary Affairs (MPA), Lok Sabha and its Secretariat (LSS) and Rajya Sabha and its Secretariat (RSS) along with their subordinate and attached offices like Directorate of Estate (DoE), Land & Development Office (L&DO), National Building Construction Corporation (NBCC), Central Public Works Department (CPWD), National Capital Regional Planning Board (NCRPB), Housing & Urban Development Corporation (HUDO), National Building Organisation (NBO), Delhi Development Authority (DDA), BMPTC and many others.

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