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Some number analysis regarding India whether the second wave is for real or not.


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I have taken Sep 23rd a week later when India achieved the peak number of cases for comparisons.

On Sep 23rd,7 day average daily growth of cases across India was 1.6%

Feb 25th 2021 the same stands at 0.13%

On Sep 23rd, daily test positivity rate was 9.1%

Feb 25th it is 1.9%

The red herring is that the number of tests done now have decreased compared to Sep 2020.

Going by the numbers,Maharashtra and Kerala are in the situation what was India in Sep 2020 and slowly other states have started increasing their daily cases.

Once the test positivity rate which is currently
1.9% crosses 5% then the full impact of the second surge will be felt with increasing hospitalisation and deaths.

With the private sector being pressed for vaccinations,there is a hope the full blown second wave can be limited?


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