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Tuesday, June 15, 2021

Who wins and who loses in the Middle East?

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Rajiv Saxena
Rajiv Prakash Saxena is a graduate of UBC, Vancouver, Canada. He is an authority on eCommerce, eProcurement, eSign, DSCs and Internet Security. He has been a Technology Bureaucrat and Thought leader in the Government. He has 8 books and few UN assignments. He wrote IT Policies of Colombia and has implemented projects in Jordan, Rwanda, Nepal and Mauritius. Rajiv writes, speaks, mentors on technology issues in Express Computers, ET, National frontier and TV debates. He worked and guided the following divisions: Computer Aided Design (CAD), UP: MP: Maharashtra and Haryana State Coordinator to setup NICNET in their respective Districts of the State, TradeNIC, wherein a CD containing list of 1,00,000 exporters was cut with a search engine and distributed to all Indian Embassies and High Commissions way back in the year 1997 (It was an initiative between NIC and MEA Trade Division headed by Ms. Sujatha Singh, IFS, India’s Ex Foreign Secretary), Law Commission, Ministry of Law & Justice, Department of Legal Affairs, Department of Justice, Ministry of Urban Development (MoUD), Ministry of Housing & Urban Poverty Alleviation (MoHUPA), National Jail Project, National Human Rights Commission (NHRC), National Commission for Minorities (NCM), National Data Centres (NDC), NIC National Infrastructure, Certifying Authority (CA) to issue Digital Signature Certificates (DSCs), eProcurement, Ministry of Parliamentary Affairs (MPA), Lok Sabha and its Secretariat (LSS) and Rajya Sabha and its Secretariat (RSS) along with their subordinate and attached offices like Directorate of Estate (DoE), Land & Development Office (L&DO), National Building Construction Corporation (NBCC), Central Public Works Department (CPWD), National Capital Regional Planning Board (NCRPB), Housing & Urban Development Corporation (HUDO), National Building Organisation (NBO), Delhi Development Authority (DDA), BMPTC and many others.

The most important question may not be where President Biden stands after the Gaza skirmish. It is where the next President of the United States stands – Kamala Harris does! The odds are certainly high that Joe Biden will not last the entire first term due to his medical situation. The main question is probably whether or not he will last more than one or two years. Kamala Harris will probably follow the lead of the likes of President Barack Obama more than Biden when it comes to how to deal with the State of Israel. That will be Barack Obama, 3rd term albeit by proxy. She is not willing to solve the Texan border issue, as they are the future voters of Dems, like the Muslims coming from Bangladesh or Delhi CM hands over a cheque of Rs. 1 crore to a Muslim doctor and ignores other doctors.

Let us now summarise the damage suffered by Israel in this war. Keep in mind that if not for emergency protocols, the Iron Dome, public shelters and building codes requiring a safe room in each apartment, there would have been a lot more dead Israelis. Some of the causalities are:

Ashkelon 792 buildings and 267 vehicles were damaged;

Ashdod 228 buildings and 130 cars;

Tel Aviv 77 buildings and 7 cars;

Ramat Gan 254 buildings and few cars;

Givataym 157 buildings and may be few cars;

Petah Tikva 231 buildings and few cars;

Lod and Ramla 348 buildings and 229 vehicles;

Akko 16 buildings and few cars;

Haifa 19 buildings and 26 cars; and

Jerusalem 4 buildings and 26 cars.

Barack Obama has clearly shown that the State of Israel is not a high priority to him. He has adopted the Chamberlain – like policy of appeasement towards the aggressors. He genuinely believes that the way to fight aggressors is via meetings and understandings, and not through threats of force – backed up by previous actions. The United States is well on its way towards the 3rd term of Barack Obama.

Joe Biden will probably be an ineffective leader. Bumbling, yet not-so-radical President on foreign policy. But, he will step aside, and we will be dealing with a Susan Rice or Barack Obama – led government with Kamala Harris at the helm a ‘Mukhota’. These are precarious times. Talks with Iran is progressing well in Vienna and no steps are taken to slow it down and this will be a security risk for Israel, for sure. There are reports that talks between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran are progressing well at the instance of Shia Iraq and Lebanon is firing rockets towards Israel. Hezbollah has total control of terrorists of this country.

In the long, difficult and turbulent relations between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the defense establishment, Thursday night marked a new low. Initially, Netanyahu tried, through an official statement, to place responsibility for the ceasefire, which was forced on him by US President Joe Biden – on the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the other security branches. Shortly afterward, dirt on the army’s performance during the Gaza campaign was leaked to the media, with the goal of insulating Netanyahu from any hint of blame for the defeat.

A senior officer in the reserves, one who played key roles in all the recent operations that Israel conducted in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, was asked this week about the somewhat strange experience, for him, of watching the unfolding events via television at home. “I never understood the impact of the broadcasts on the Israeli viewer,” he admitted. “When we in the army were engaged in combat, we didn’t have the time or the attentiveness for the public’s reactions. We focused on our activity. But the viewers at home see countless images from the sites where rockets struck in Israel, and here and there a short segment about the dimensions of the destruction in Gaza. The picture they get is completely different.”

Instead of internalising how blessed they (Arabs in Israel) are to have freedom and equality in the Jewish state Israel – more than they would be able to have in any other Arab muslim country in the region, they choose to support the destruction of Israel. Let us hear the transcript of a debate.

Official PA TV host: “Let us hear the shouts and hear these calls in a live broadcast.”

Nazareth protesters: “They’ve crossed the line! They’ve gone too far! Rise up intifada!” “They’ve crossed the line! They’ve gone too far! Rise up intifada… The blessing of our revolution to proud Jerusalem.

Protesters: “To those who ask who we are: We are your youth, Palestine. We are your youth, Palestine.

To those who ask us what happened?

The siege of Gaza has tightened… [We say] openly, openly, openly, openly We don’t want to see a Zionist.

We don’t want to see a Zionist: With spirit and blood we will redeem the Al-Aqsa Mosque”.

Official PA TV broadcast this during ongoing violent Arab riots in Jerusalem and other mixed Jewish – Arab cities in Israel, and while Hamas and Islamic Jihad fired thousands of rockets from the Gaza Strip at Israeli population centers.

The mutually agreed upon truce that is also unconditional, agreed upon by both Hamas and Israel went into effect Friday morning. The effects of the truce was already felt at the quiet across Israel and Gaza but stray incidents are taking place of killing and stabbing.

While the truce was celebrated by the international community, its real purpose had little to do with Israel or Hamas, but rather Joe Biden’s need to stave off an internal revolt by far left Democrats who are quickly taking over his party. At the core of it, Biden’s team can be split between far left globalists like Jake Sullivan and traditionalists like Loyd Austin and Tony Blinken. This schism allowed for Israel to achieve some of its aims, but not most of them. Biden needed respite from the left’s onslaught led by AOC and Rashida Tlaib.

Another factor is Biden’s need to calm down the region as he closes in on another nuclear agreement with Iran. Given the fact that the skirmish of the last week and half was a proxy war between Israel and Mullah’s, Biden’s team needed to start pushing for it to wind down. Already there are those asking why the US is so interested in reentering the 2015 nuclear deal if Iran is pushing for more destabilisation.

What is the policy of President Biden on the Middle East? Well, we are seeing now that President Biden is not taking a strong stand on the situation in Israel. He is not standing up against Israel nor is he supporting Israel by speaking out against the Hamas raining down missiles on Israeli towns and cities. However, it must be noted that he has publicly – even if by mistake – confronted Rashida Tlaib about her radical anti-Israel stance. This must be noted. Barack Obama would never have done such a deed. The show down on the tarmac between President Biden and her was well written in left oriented newspapers, as if it was the victory of the left in the democrat party!

The truce, if it holds does nothing to affect any long term arrangement or prevent Hamas from starting another conflict whenever it suits them. What it does do is in affect hand Biden an IOU to Netanyahu and that perhaps may be just as important.

Israeli citizens, Arab Muslims, publicly calling to support the armed uprising against Israel. Instead of internalising how blessed they are to have freedom and equality in the Jewish State of Israel, more than they would be able to have in any other Arab Muslim country in the Middle East, they chose to support the destruction of Israel.

On May 10, 2021, the terror organization Hamas launched numerous rocket barrages targeting Israeli population centers. Over a period of 8 days, Hamas and Islamic Jihad fired over 4500 rockets into Israel from the Gaza Strip, killing 7 Israelis and wounding dozens. In response, Israel launched Operation Guardian of the Walls to target Hamas terror leaders and terror infrastructure. The Israeli army also confronted terror activity in the West Bank, and was deployed to maintain order in Israeli cities with a mixed Jewish and Arab population, where Israeli Arabs violently rioted and attacked Jews with guns, knives, and firebombs, killing 1 Israeli. In return, Jews started attacking Arabs and Arab businesses as well. Hamas’ launching of rockets followed weeks of violent Arab riots in Jerusalem.

The PA’s ostensible pretexts for the wave of Arab violence were PA elections being prevented in Jerusalem; Israeli security barricades at the Damascus Gate of Jerusalem’s Old City to prevent disturbances (which were later removed following violent riots); and the planned eviction of the several Arab families illegally living in properties in the Sheikh Jarrah neighbourhood of East Jerusalem owned by Jews who were expelled in the 1948 Israeli War of Independence.

After 11 days of fighting, a welcome calm prevails once again. Much to our regret, however, we cannot but conclude that the overall outcome of this round leans in Hamas’ favour.

Many walls fell during Operation Guardian of the Walls.

Hamas achieved its primary objectives during the first few days of the fighting and every day that passed merely served to reinforce them further. Militarily, Hamas succeeded in firing 4,400 rockets against Israel’s home front, disrupted life in much of the country and undermined the public’s sense of security.

Strategically, Hamas gained the lead in the struggle for control of the Palestinian Arena, at the expense of the Palestinian Authority (PA), created a linkage between Gaza and the Jerusalem issue, positioning itself as the “defender of al-Aqsa” (mosque), fomented riots in Israel and the West Bank, and exposed a growing rift between Israel and the United States.

Incidentally Gaza strip is just 25 miles long!

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Rajiv Saxena
Rajiv Prakash Saxena is a graduate of UBC, Vancouver, Canada. He is an authority on eCommerce, eProcurement, eSign, DSCs and Internet Security. He has been a Technology Bureaucrat and Thought leader in the Government. He has 8 books and few UN assignments. He wrote IT Policies of Colombia and has implemented projects in Jordan, Rwanda, Nepal and Mauritius. Rajiv writes, speaks, mentors on technology issues in Express Computers, ET, National frontier and TV debates. He worked and guided the following divisions: Computer Aided Design (CAD), UP: MP: Maharashtra and Haryana State Coordinator to setup NICNET in their respective Districts of the State, TradeNIC, wherein a CD containing list of 1,00,000 exporters was cut with a search engine and distributed to all Indian Embassies and High Commissions way back in the year 1997 (It was an initiative between NIC and MEA Trade Division headed by Ms. Sujatha Singh, IFS, India’s Ex Foreign Secretary), Law Commission, Ministry of Law & Justice, Department of Legal Affairs, Department of Justice, Ministry of Urban Development (MoUD), Ministry of Housing & Urban Poverty Alleviation (MoHUPA), National Jail Project, National Human Rights Commission (NHRC), National Commission for Minorities (NCM), National Data Centres (NDC), NIC National Infrastructure, Certifying Authority (CA) to issue Digital Signature Certificates (DSCs), eProcurement, Ministry of Parliamentary Affairs (MPA), Lok Sabha and its Secretariat (LSS) and Rajya Sabha and its Secretariat (RSS) along with their subordinate and attached offices like Directorate of Estate (DoE), Land & Development Office (L&DO), National Building Construction Corporation (NBCC), Central Public Works Department (CPWD), National Capital Regional Planning Board (NCRPB), Housing & Urban Development Corporation (HUDO), National Building Organisation (NBO), Delhi Development Authority (DDA), BMPTC and many others.
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