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If one become enamored by phrases like “Pakistan – China friendship is higher than Himalayas, deeper than the Pacific Ocean, sweeter than best honey and stronger than the Tungsten steel”, then it’s time to peel the virtual layers and look deeper down to unearth the ground realities.

China has and always will look for its own self – interest first;

India too will maximise its own economic interests and promote itself;

Pakistan has very little to offer in economic terms except for its geographic position in offering a safe entry to China in the Indian ocean, which is also crumbling;

Pakistan is also a grave security risk to itself with an extremely porous border with Afghanistan in the north;

Pakistan has to allow use of its land for exploitation and under exploitative conditions;

Subsequently, China, under ‘mutual secrecy’, will extract the maximum out of Pakistan under those conditions and Pakistan will suffer mounting debt and fall into dire economic traps sooner than later. Many Muslim nations in the Middle East had bailed out Pakistan earlier but not anymore. Countries in the Middle East have stopped seeing Pakistan with any respect and its position in the world high table has gone down. The number of its supporters to argue against the FATF downgrade has gone down and its clout in OIC is decreasing day by day.

Four countries: Israel, UAE, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia are now in discussions to build an effective Sunni – Israeli defense alliance against the growing Iranian threat and Pakistan has not been included either in the pro or the anti – camp.

While it was clear that the UAE’s and Bahrain’s peace deals with Israel was heading to an alliance, the Saudis are now on board after watching the Biden administration give the Houthis a free hand in Yemen, effectively leading them to initiate a new set of attacks on Saudi Arabia.

The coming war with Iran is now not a question of if, but rather when. The four countries making up the defense alliance have not only ruled out waiting for Biden to come around, but rather getting ready to stop the spreading Shiite threat themselves.

On the other hand, India has economic clout. China can ill afford to be extractive. India – China trade is multiple times higher than Pak – China trade. India is a far better option for Chinese trade but NOT on exploitative terms as is the case with Pakistan.

It is a general feeling that China’s investments in Pakistan is on wane and President Xi will again extend a hand of friendship towards India, when he may visit India during the BRICS meet in the latter half of the year, 2021. China’s export to India has also dipped and special rules have been made to avoid their investments in India. Sincere efforts are going to ensure that Indian unicorns get rid of the Chinese investments sooner than later. Its surgical strike against the 59 applications has led to the development of Indian apps to give tough international challenge to Tik Tok and has reduced their global valuations since Indians no longer use them.

Indian Covid – 19 diplomacy has won new friends and India has exported its vaccine to almost 100 nations of the world, thereby creating a soft diplomacy victory as the saviour of its people rather can infecting the citizens by circulation ‘china virus’. WHO team which went to explore the origin of the virus came back empty handed but they will again visit Wuhan to find the truth of the virus.

In order to put pressure on growing control of China, Quad leaders are meeting in March to device a unified policy. This will sooner than later have active participation from Germany, France and UK to share their naval and air bases to have new division in world order that – either they are with China or against China.

The concept of ‘sanatani dharma’ wins hands down for sure.

Rajiv Saxena
Rajiv Saxena
Rajiv Prakash Saxena is a graduate of UBC, Vancouver, Canada. He is an authority on eCommerce, eProcurement, eSign, DSCs and Internet Security. He has been a Technology Bureaucrat and Thought leader in the Government. He has 8 books and few UN assignments. He wrote IT Policies of Colombia and has implemented projects in Jordan, Rwanda, Nepal and Mauritius. Rajiv writes, speaks, mentors on technology issues in Express Computers, ET, National frontier and TV debates. He worked and guided the following divisions: Computer Aided Design (CAD), UP: MP: Maharashtra and Haryana State Coordinator to setup NICNET in their respective Districts of the State, TradeNIC, wherein a CD containing list of 1,00,000 exporters was cut with a search engine and distributed to all Indian Embassies and High Commissions way back in the year 1997 (It was an initiative between NIC and MEA Trade Division headed by Ms. Sujatha Singh, IFS, India’s Ex Foreign Secretary), Law Commission, Ministry of Law & Justice, Department of Legal Affairs, Department of Justice, Ministry of Urban Development (MoUD), Ministry of Housing & Urban Poverty Alleviation (MoHUPA), National Jail Project, National Human Rights Commission (NHRC), National Commission for Minorities (NCM), National Data Centres (NDC), NIC National Infrastructure, Certifying Authority (CA) to issue Digital Signature Certificates (DSCs), eProcurement, Ministry of Parliamentary Affairs (MPA), Lok Sabha and its Secretariat (LSS) and Rajya Sabha and its Secretariat (RSS) along with their subordinate and attached offices like Directorate of Estate (DoE), Land & Development Office (L&DO), National Building Construction Corporation (NBCC), Central Public Works Department (CPWD), National Capital Regional Planning Board (NCRPB), Housing & Urban Development Corporation (HUDO), National Building Organisation (NBO), Delhi Development Authority (DDA), BMPTC and many others.


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