The terrorist attack on World Trade Centre in New York on 11 September 2001, led to US Invasion in Afghanistan. Taliban provided refuge to Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin laden & his organization Al-Qaeda.
After two decades of conflict in Afghanistan and spending $2.26 Trillion dollars, the United States government have in many ways accepted that they have failed to decimate Taliban completely which control’s large swathes of the countryside.The visibility of Taliban is widespread in social, economic & political spheres.
Taliban was formed by students who emerged from the madarsas in Pashtun dominated region of Afghanistan. The group formed the Islamic Emirate of Afghnistan in 1996 with Kandhar at its capital and implemented brutal Sharia law in the process subjugating the civil liberties and crushing human rights of Afghan civilians. The militant Islamic group inspired by Deobandi fundamentalism had destroyed numerous monuments and prominent among being the descreation of 1500 year old of Bamiyan statues of Buddha.
The Taliban has scored political, strategic & military victory by ejecting the US forces out of Afghanistan. The rogue group gained international recognition & legitimacy after the United States signed peace accord at Doha, to pave way for their safe and peaceful exit from Afghanistan. Subsequently today the fundamentalist Jihadi group has gained international recognition from Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, Qatar & others as well. Taliban has evolved in two decades and they have well established multi layer chain of command, with formalized power structure. With strong, formidable 85,000 full time militia fighters the rogue group is moving rapidly as the US forces are withdrawing from the region. The Jihadi militia were quick to sieze control over border crossing & trade gateways with neighboring countries Pakistan, Iran, Turkmenistan, Tajakistan, China. And if intelligence agencies have indicated that Afghan government in Kabul will lose control over the country within six months.
Having outsmarted the United States, NATO & west, the Taliban will look to position itself predominantly in the Islamic world as their saviour and will establish links with global terror groups like Al-Qaeda, ISIS. The group has started communication lines with having their spokesperson, social media handles to convey their positions & intent to the world. They have used the rough Afghan terrain to choke the American forces & gained expertise in using drone to target their adversaries. The blatant disregard of the peace accord with Americans for power sharing with Afghan government shows that they have no intent the accept the new Afghanistan which is pluralist and democratic in nature. Due to sudden American departure the investment climate in the country will suffer, international NGOs will shift. The army has lost the morale to fight the Taliban, as they are dependent on finances, logistics & equipment from Americans. Afghan Youth are leaving the country. In the Taliban regime human rights will not be practised, the Shariah law will replace the constitution and dissent will be curbed. Until now having women teachers was normal and under the Taliban regime, the prospect of girls attending schools looks difficult.
The free democratic world across the globe face risk of renewed call of Jihadi terrorism in view of above developments. The United States is to blame for the current state of sorry affairs in Afghanistan. On the one hand the American forces were fighting war on terror against Taliban, Pakistan and ISI were secretly providing covert support & shelter to Taliban leaders, commanders, and sympathizers. They provided save haven for Taliban to regroup and rearm. And unlike in the past it would be gross under estimation of Taliban intent to remain subservient to global agenda of Pakistan & ISI. The recent blast in bus in Pakistan which killed 9 Chinese, has demonstrated the will of the rogue group to target $62 Billion CPEC project. The confidence gained with rapid strides made in Afghanistan will magnetize the groups appeal to attract more fighters to its global jihadi agenda. A Jihadi troika of Taliban, ISIS, Al-Qaeda with hardliners in Pakistan army can gain control over Pakistan nuclear facilities or weapons. The possibility of extremist group acquiring nuclear device or essentially build a crude nuclear bomb, one that has a low yield and may be unpredictable, inefficient, and unsafe is real. The Father of Pakistan nuclear bomb Abdul Qadeer Khan had exported sensitive nuclear technologies to rogue nations like Iran, Libya & North Korea. The Ummah Tameer-e-Nau (UTN),a Pakistani militant organization has supplied information about constructing nuclear weapons to Osama Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda. The above developments state that rapidly growing Pakistan nuclear program has the vulnerability to be penetrated by proximity between terrorists, extremists, and nuclear weapons insiders.
Along with the nuclear strikes, Taliban might be able to launch non conventional warfare like cyber attacks, biological leaks in its thirst to project itself as harbinger of Islamic resistance against free democracies. The virology labs established under the partnership of Wuhan-Pakistan could also be used to extract pathogens to be released in enemy territory. The instability in Pakistan and deteriorating law & order makes it vulnerable against resurgent Taliban. The interest of United States of America & world would be to reign in Taliban, rather than giving them legitimacy. A threat of regional instability looms over Central Asia, Middle East & Indian subcontinent going forward. Remember the two decade invasion and killing of 100,000 Afghanistan will generate wave of retaliation across American homeland as well. United States & West should brace itself for possible future attacks. The possibility of Taliban being used by autocratic dictatorial regimes as their covert handlers will be calamitous threat for mankind.