For decades, the “shadow war” between Israel and Iran, with the United States acting as Israel’s primary security guarantor, has defined Middle Eastern geopolitics. However, as Iran nears the “threshold” of nuclear weapons capability and regional proxy conflicts escalate, the possibility of a direct, overt military confrontation has moved from the realm of theory to a plausible, albeit catastrophic, contingency.
A coordinated US-Israel attack on Iran would not merely be a regional skirmish; it would be a tectonic event with the potential to reshape global economics, security alliances, and the very structure of international law.
I. The Catalyst: Why an Attack Would Occur
The primary driver for a US-Israel joint operation would likely be the “red line” regarding Iran’s nuclear program. Israel views a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat, citing Tehran’s rhetoric regarding the destruction of the “Zionist entity.” The United States, while preferring diplomacy, maintains that “all options are on the table” to prevent Iranian nuclearization.
Target Profiles:
- Nuclear Infrastructure: Hardened sites like Natanz and the deeply buried Fordow enrichment plant.
- Military Command and Control: IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) headquarters and communication hubs.
- Missile and Drone Production: Facilities manufacturing the Shahed drones and ballistic missiles used by Iran and its proxies.
- Air Defense Systems: Neutralizing the Russian-made S-300 and indigenous Bavar-373 systems to ensure air superiority.
II. The Nature of the Attack: A Multi-Domain OffensiveA US-Israel strike would likely be a masterpiece of modern electronic and kinetic warfare.
- Cyber Warfare: Before the first missile is fired, “Stuxnet-style” cyberattacks would likely target Iran’s power grid, communication networks, and military command structures to create “fog of war.”
- Air Superiority: Israel’s F-35 “Adir” stealth fighters, supported by US refueling tankers and electronic warfare aircraft, would attempt to bypass Iran’s radar.
- Kinetic Strikes: The use of “bunker-buster” munitions (like the US GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator) would be necessary to reach underground nuclear facilities.
III. Iran’s Retaliation: The “Ring of Fire” and Asymmetric Response
Tehran’s military doctrine is built on “deterrence through retaliation.” Iran understands it cannot win a conventional dogfight against the US Air Force, so its response would be asymmetric and multi-front.
1. The Proxy Offensive (The Axis of Resistance):
Iran would likely activate its “Ring of Fire.” Hezbollah in Lebanon would launch massive rocket and precision-missile salvos into northern and central Israel, overwhelming the Iron Dome. Iraqi militias and the Houthis in Yemen would target US bases in the region and commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
2. Ballistic Missile Swarms:
Iran possesses the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East. It would likely launch hundreds of missiles (such as the Fattah or Kheibar Shekan) directly at Israeli cities and US strategic assets in Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE.
3. Closing the Strait of Hormuz:
Perhaps the most potent weapon in Iran’s arsenal is its geography. By mining the Strait of Hormuz or using fast-attack boats to harass tankers, Iran could effectively halt 20% of the world’s daily oil supply, holding the global economy hostage.
IV. Global Economic Impact: The Energy Shockwave
The immediate fallout of such a conflict would be felt at gas pumps and in boardrooms globally.
- Oil Prices: Analysts predict that a full-scale conflict involving the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could send Brent crude prices soaring past $150 or even $200 per barrel.
- Supply Chain Disruption: Increased insurance premiums for shipping in the Middle East would lead to a spike in the cost of consumer goods, fueling global inflation just as the world attempts to recover from previous economic shocks.
- Market Volatility: Global stock markets would likely see a flight to “safe-haven” assets like gold and US Treasuries, while emerging markets with high energy dependencies (like India and parts of East Africa) could face economic collapse.
V. Geopolitical Realignment: The New Cold War
A US-Israel attack on Iran would force the world to take sides, potentially solidifying a new “multi-polar” world order.
- Russia and China: Russia, which relies on Iranian drones for its war in Ukraine, would likely provide intelligence and diplomatic cover for Tehran. China, as a major purchaser of Iranian oil, would view the attack as an assault on its energy security and an example of “US Hegemony,” further straining US-China relations.
- The Arab World: Traditional US allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE would find themselves in a precarious position. While they fear Iran, they also fear the domestic backlash from their populations if they are seen as complicit in an attack on a fellow Muslim nation, especially amidst the backdrop of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
- The Collapse of Diplomacy: Such an attack would effectively end the era of non-proliferation treaties with Iran, likely prompting Tehran to withdraw from the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty) and move toward a nuclear weapon as a final deterrent.
